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Влияние присоединения к ВТО на приток иностранных инвестиций в Россию
Влияние присоединения к ВТО на приток иностранных инвестиций в Россию
По просьбе Конференции ООН по торговле и развитию (ЮНКТАД) д.э.н., профессор кафедры МЭО и ВЭС Г.М. Костюнина провела исследование на тему «Russian Federation’s accession to WTO: implication for inward FDI flows», часть которого вошла в Доклад о мировых прямых инвестициях (World Investment Report-2012).
Russian Federation’s accession to WTO: implication for inward FDI flows
On 16 December 2011, at its Ministerial meeting in Geneva, the World Trade Organization (WTO) formally invited the Russia Federation to join the WTO. The fulfilment of the WTO obligations by this country will involve substantial trade and investment liberalization measures. These will have implications on FDI flows to the Russian Federation in all of the three sectors (services, manufacturing and primary sector), which will be felt even more strongly once the transition period to the full compliance of WTO standards has been completed.
— The service sector accounts for more than 40 per cent of GDP in the Russian Federation. At present, foreign investors’ activities in this sector are largely restricted. Liberalization will gradually allow foreign investors to operate in this sector. The Russian Federation has special obligations in 11 sectors and 116 subsectors. Liberalization in the services sector will set the stage for a large-scale participation of FDI in this fast growing sector. For example:
— In the banking sector, foreign banks may establish majority-owned affiliates, and the threshold of foreign participation is raised to 50 per cent (with the exception of foreign investment in privatized banks in which higher ownership is possible). However, the country has allowed the establishment of subsidiaries of international banks, although they have to be registered as Russian entities, have their own capital and be subject to supervision by the Russian central bank.
— In the insurance industry foreign ownership has been raised to 100 per cent, in non-life insurance companies and to 50 per cent in the life insurance market (up from 15 per cent in both insurances).
— In trade, 100 per cent foreign firms are allowed to participate in both the wholesale and retail segments.
— In the business services, the country has committed itself to market access and national treatment for a wide variety of professions, including lawyers, architects, accountants, engineers, health-care professionals, advertising, marketing and management specialists. Foreign companies have been permitted to operate as 100 per cent foreign-owned entities.
— In the telecommunications restrictions on foreign participation that are 49 per cent now will be eliminated within 4 years after the WTO accession.
— In distribution services, 100 per cent foreign-owned companies have been allowed to engage in wholesale, retail and franchise activities, as well as express delivery services, including the distribution of pharmaceuticals.
- Manufacturing sector. Unlike services, most manufacturing industries in the Russian Federation had been largely open to foreign investors and had already attracted a significant amount of FDI. Accession to the WTO may not, therefore, immediately have substantial FDI-generating effects. Indeed, the reduction of import restrictions and the elimination of trade-related investment measures in industries such as automobiles and food industries may reduce incentives to FDI by eroding the possibility for «barrier-hopping». Nevertheless, over time, freer access to imported inputs could help improve the cost-quality conditions of manufacturing, and increase the attractiveness of the economy as a site for efficiency-oriented manufacturing FDI. Some other industries which are not competitive such as mechanical engineering may lose FDI potential as they will have to undergo downsizing in the aftermath of WTO accession and the end of current protection. Industries such as ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy and chemical products may benefit from WTO accession and better access to foreign markets, but only in the long run. Metallurgy and chemicals are already competitive in world markets and operate without major subsidies.
- The primary sector. WTO accession may benefit FDI in the mining sector, but hinder FDI in agriculture. Foreign investors may be also attracted to export-oriented oil and gas production (within the limits of the strategic sectors law) as these activities will benefits from liberalization of markets and the elimination of export quotas. Business opportunities are expected to be scarcer in agriculture, in which output may even contract. According to the estimates by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the country will annually lose $4 billion in agricultural production. However this modelling is based on the assumption that local production will not be able to improve productivity and competitiveness. In case local producers react with successful modernization, the losses may be more moderate, and competitive foreign producers can still find niche markets in food and beverages.
Through the process of its accession to WTO, the country has further committed to integrate itself into the global economic system. This will boost foreign investors’ confidence, as well as improve the overall investment environment.
Upon accession, pursuant to the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures, the Russian Federation will be prohibited from imposing certain conditions on investing in the country in order to obtain a benefit from the government.
In conclusion, accession to WTO will make the country more attractive for FDI. The services sector may well replace the manufacturing sector as the engine of FDI growth; within the manufacturing sector, domestic and foreign investors will most likely undergo a process of consolidation in response to the development of a more competitive landscape in the country. In the primary sector, the impact on FDI quite varies by industry.
a) The Russian Federation will have until mid-July 2013 to ratify the accession agreement and will become a member 30 days after it notifies the WTO of its ratification.b) In addition foreign affiliates in the banking are allowed to the cross-border provision of numerous services including asset management services, credit cards and other types of payments; to own and trade all kinds of securities available in the country, including government securities, and to participate in the privatization of state-owned enterprises.
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