Sanctions Will Have No Effect on Russia


Sanctions Will Have No Effect on Russia

Эксперты МГИМО: Андраник Мигранян
Sanctions Will Have No Effect on Russia

Andranik Migranyan, a professor at the Institute of International Relations in Moscow, is the director of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation, an organization in New York that deals with relations between Russia and the United States.

The unification of Crimea and Russia has further convinced the Russian leadership that it holds the cards in foreign affairs, a position President Putin already felt he had after convincing Assad to hand over his chemical arsenal for liquidation, letting President Obama save face.

For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine are working together to demand a federalization of the nation, one of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s chief demands for calming the crisis, along with Ukraine’s guaranteed neutrality in the security framework of Europe. These issues have united Russian society and increased popular support for Putin, allowing him to maintain his foreign policy course even more decisively in places like Syria.

Along with Putin, China and Iran, Syria’s chief regional ally, are doing their best to avoid poorly thought-out and unpredictable regime change in Syria, considering the chaos in Libya that followed the hurried overthrow of the Gaddafi government by NATO and U.S. forces, with Putin’s regretted acquiescence. Radical Islamists with Al Qaeda connections are prominent among the anti-Assad forces, so the overthrow of the Assad government that the United States and its allies seek would threaten the whole region, especially Israel, Lebanon and Jordan.

No matter what sanctions are put on Russian officials the Russians will still believe that in the choice between Assad and jihadists, Assad is the lesser evil. The Obama administration should entertain no illusions that after it imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia would join the United States in taking stronger action against Assad.

Точка зрения авторов, комментарии которых публикуются в рубрике
«Говорят эксперты МГИМО», может не совпадать с мнением редакции портала.

Источник: «The New York Times»
Распечатать страницу