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Why sanctions on Russia will do no good
Why sanctions on Russia will do no good
Аспирантка кафедры международных отношений и внешней политики России Мария Дубовикова — о санкциях.
If you type in the word «sanctions» into the Google search bar, the phrase «sanctions on Russia» will likely show up as one of the top drop down suggestions, as would «sanctions of Iran.»
The most recent sanctions affect the military and the energy and banking sectors, however the impact is debatable.
These sanctions have led the Russian government to resort to import substitution in an effort to minimize their impact on the economy, but this takes time. The banking sphere has resorted to a similar urgent crisis management plan.
Although the sanctions will strike the economy and the incomes of ordinary people, the Russian government is now forced into implementing a hurried version of a plan for economic reform. Russian authorities faced a dilemma on how to make the economy less dependent, more versatile, and had to brainstorm on how to attract investment into Russia. Thanks to the sanctions, the problem seems close to being solved.
Taking into account the unique rise of nationalistic and patriotic feelings these months, feelings I have seen personally, there is a belief that people are ready to work hard without the need of incentives, as well as to spend their holidays traveling within Russia.
The mentality of the Russian people, according to historic examples, is very specific and is reflected in numerous folklore tales and proverbs. In my view, one mentality that is reiterated is if you do not push them, they will do nothing. So in some way, these sanctions are a convenient stimulus to develop and to get the lazy economic system and industry sectors to work.
Naturally, the sanctions will have an impact, but with no clear target or vision. In any case, these sanctions seem counterproductive and will hardly change Russia’s foreign policy in my view.
The Western media owes the new wave of sanctions against Russia to the federation’s supposed support of rebels in East Ukraine. The fact that the United Nations and other states have yet to produce solid proof that shows Russia’s support of the rebels, in my view, does not bother media editors or political circles who are nervous about Russia’s new foreign policy.
But the only novelty in this policy lies in movement from written and spoken words to concrete actions.
Recent articles in Western media circles question whether these
sanctions will prove fatal for Putin and lead
Sanctions go hand in hand with two other policies:
operations (i.e. its increased involment in Eastern Europe) and calls
to «join the club." British Prime Minister David Cameron
is a mouthpiece for NATO’s involvement
in the region. Cameron has stated that NATO should deploy weapons
in Eastern Europe to combat the Russian threat and that
Before the crisis, NATO members assured Russia that NATO’s expansion was just to secure the West from Iran, according to my understanding of the matter. Now that Iran seems to have been forgotten, everybody is calling for the strengthen of NATO against Russia.
This policy will lead Russia’s leaders to strengthen its military might in accordance with its national interests as they see menace in NATO, I feel.
At the same time, a
Some sanctions against Iran have been mitigated and according to my private sources, American companies are returning to the Iranian market. When looked at from afar, sanctions would seem like an absolutely brilliant play, but the goals are dubious and the principles are far from fair.
A problem for the West is that Russians speak English (as it is widely taught in schools) and have access to the Internet where they can keep up with what the BBC and CNN say about them and their country. As for those who do not speak English well enough, some bloggers translate videos into Russian.
Conservative Russians watch state media, which I feel has no need
to generate content for
For experts, the current crisis is a complete nightmare,
as it is always very hard to be heard while abroad
on international conferences and business trips. It is also hard
to appeal to logic while commentators still accuse experts
of espousing «the Kremlin’s propaganda." This crisis does not add
much love to
Maria Dubovikova is a
«Говорят эксперты МГИМО», может не совпадать с мнением редакции портала.