Russia – North Korea: state of affairs and trends

Russia – North Korea: state of affairs and trends

Авторы: Пономарева Елена Георгиевна ЧИТАТЬ
Ponomareva E. Russia – North Korea: state of affairs and trends / E. Ponomareva, G. Rudov // Journal of Asian Public Policy. - 2016. - Vol. 9. - № 1. - P. 45-56.

Amid new historical circumstances with higher turbulence of international relations and conflict potential, Russian and North Korean relations are an inherent part of regional and global contexts. It may be said without exaggeration that Moscow-Pyongyang relations shape the security of the entire Pacific Rim. This is especially relevant in the light of the global balance of power steadily shifting to the East over the last few years. Russia views the Pacific Rim direction as a priority, which entails complicated and controversial decisions. The Korean peninsula is one of the oldest and most dangerous conflict-prone areas directly related to Russia’s national interests. The article provides a general assessment of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang on a number of the most pressing issues of bilateral relations and analyzes the economic factor in Russia’s foreign-policy decision-making. In addition, the authors examine four main scenarios of the possible development of the situation over the DPRK. The authors consider the scenario of Peaceful coexistence to be the most promising; the Status quo scenario is seen as the most viable one, while the Escalation logic and Solution by force ones are regarded as leading to violent conflicts and unacceptable for Moscow. In conclusion, the authors stress that for Russia, it would make sense to develop the rhetoric of a multilateral security system in the Northeast Asia. Thus, Moscow is able to offer a new concept of maintaining peace on the Korean peninsula. Needless to say, elaborating a concept like that is time-consuming and complicated, but vital for the regional security.

Ключевые слова: Russia; North Korea; bilateral relations; the nuclear problem on the Korean peninsula; possible scenarios of a solution to the Korean question
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